RACE ANALYSIS: Crawford’s late-race charge - could he have finished P2?

It was a spirited drive from Jak Crawford in the Barcelona Feature Race. The DAMS Lucas Oil driver suffered some misfortune in the Sprint with a late Safety Car taking an almost assured victory out of his grasp.

On Sunday, the American put on a charge with the alternative strategy and flew through the top 10 in the closing stages. However, another Safety Car intervention put a halt to his progress, or did it?

Would Crawford have been assured of P2 had the Feature Race run to the end, or was P4 his maximum result regardless?

PRIME CONTENDER

Crawford started the Feature Race on the white-marked Hard Pirelli tyres. He was able to maintain his position at the start of the race in P8 and as the lead driver on the alternative strategy.

On Lap 4, he lost a position to Soft-shod Ritomo Miyata, the ART Grand Prix driver able to use DRS to move ahead at Turn 1.

The middle phase of the race then became a drawn-out battle between Crawford and Dunne to be the lead driver on the Hard tyre.

READ MORE: Crawford disappointed to miss Barcelona podium but momentum continues to build

While the gap ebbed and flowed, Dunne remained within DRS range for a large part of the first stint though was unable to create a passing opportunity.

Around Lap 12, the gap began to open up and Crawford moved clear of DRS threat, building a lead of just over three seconds by the time DAMS brought him in for his mandatory stop on Lap 22.

SECOND STINT

Crawford rejoined down in 13th position, but was immediately elevated two spots on Lap 23 with pitstops ahead of him. He subsequently delivered a 1:29.823 on Lap 24 in clear air, comfortably the fastest lap of the race up to that point.

Encountering Joshua Duerksen at Turns 2 and 3 on Lap 26 cost Crawford two seconds after the AIX Racing driver has a big moment ahead of him. Crawford’s times then settled into the high 1:30s as he made progress up into the top five by Lap 29.

Overtaking Josep María Martí for P4, Crawford was then unleashed into clean air for the first time since his pitstop. At that point, he was six seconds adrift of the fight for P2 between Sebastián Montoya and Richard Verschoor on Lap 30.

CHASING DOWN A PODIUM

The six second gap was cut down by a third on Lap 31 as Crawford logged a time 1.6s quicker than the pair ahead of him.

That pattern continued with Crawford lapping 1.5s, 1.3s and then 0.7s quicker than Verschoor on each subsequent lap to close up to within DRS range of the MP Motorsport driver.

The first and ultimately only opportunity for an overtake was rebuffed by the Dutch driver, who maintained a DRS advantage by remaining within a second of Montoya in P2.

The Safety Car was then deployed on Lap 35, bringing Crawford’s charge to an end, and he had to settle for fourth at the chequered flag.

But even if the race had run green, did the DAMS driver have enough pace in hand?

RUNNING OUT OF TIME AND TYRES

If we take Crawford’s initial pace in traffic into account, it’s clear his laptime was limited by running behind slower cars ahead. He was forced to use the peak of the Soft tyres to pass the traffic as quickly as possible. From a 1:29.8 in clean air, that pace dropped by a second to a 1:30.7 by the time he moved into clear air once again on Lap 29.

In the same time frame, Verschoor’s laptimes were comparatively stable, dropping from a 1:32.1 on Lap 24 down to a 1:32.4 by the time Crawford clears the remaining traffic.

The DAMS driver’s times continued to slip little by little as he got closer to the back of Verschoor, and dipped into the 1:31s on Lap 32.

Finally reaching Verschoor, he fell into the 1:32s as the dirty air began to take a toll on the Soft tyres, and the Dutch driver comfortably defending along the main straight for what was the one and only chance Crawford looked to have.

READ MORE: Fighting for more: Josep María Martí’s Barcelona Debrief

Based on the level of degradation from the start of Crawford’s stint to his arrival in the podium fight, the Soft tyres were already beginning to cry enough.

The Aston Martin junior was just 0.4s off the back of Verschoor going onto Lap 35, and yet the slipstream and DRS was not enough to shape for a move, as the MP maintained the same benefit from Montoya ahead in P2.

Had the American been able to pull off a pass at the first time of asking, he may well have had a chance at Montoya before the end, if the race had run without a Safety Car.

But, with time running out and his tyres going away from him, and with Verschoor able to defend effectively with DRS into the best overtaking spot around Turn 1, a pass looked tougher than first thought.

Crawford maintained he would have had P2 before the Safety Car without Duerksen’s mistake in front of him earlier in the race, while Verschoor believes he would have held on in the end due to the state of the Soft tyres by the end.

A close strategic battle that unfortunately never got the payoff with the Safety Car bringing that battle to an early close.