RACE ANALYSIS: Getting the strategy right in the Spa-Francorchamps rain

It was a tricky weekend in Spa as drivers had to stay on top of the conditions on Sunday in the Feature Race through rain and shine.

Alexander Dunne crossed the line first but lost the victory to a post-race penalty, while Arvid Lindblad inherited the win momentarily before his own disqualification for a technical infringement.

But on the track, it was interesting to see strategies evolve and drivers adapt as the track dried and later, became soaked once again.

DUNNE PULLS THE PIN EARLY

The pole sitter had shown his searing pace on Friday in Qualifying, and on the evidence of the first racing lap of the Feature Race, it looked as though the pattern would remain.

That was until the Rodin Motorsport driver began to fall back into the clutches of his pursuers, as Ritomo Miyata headed a chasing pack that started to close on the leader.

For the first two laps, Dunne built up a sizeable 2.3s gap over the ART Grand Prix driver, but a mistake on Lap 3 opened the door and from there, his laptimes began to fall away compared to Miyata’s.

A 2.3s advantage quickly shrunk to 1.6s on Lap 4, 1.2 on Lap 5, 0.7s on Lap 6 and then 0.3s across the line on Lap 7.

In the dirty air, Miyata’s times began to fall away also, stabilising the gap between himself and Dunne to around 1.5s as the pitstops approached.

After the race, Dunne admitted he’d hit the tyres too hard early on, putting himself under pressure as the best of the grip went away and he had to manage things to make it deeper into the first stint.

He’d take those lessons and immediately put them into practice on the second set of tyres.

TIMING THE PITSTOP AS THE TRACK DRIES

Having slowly made progress from his P12 starting position, Luke Browning began to make moves and was comfortably the quickest driver in clean air. His 2:19.932 on Lap 8 moved him to within 10 seconds of the race leader and was almost a full second quicker than anyone else who’d yet to make a stop.

Conversely, Sami Meguetounif, Sebastián Montoya and Kush Maini’s stops at the end of Lap 6 were an indication of the pace advantage offered by a fresh set of Wet tyres. Each set a mid-to-high 2:19s on Laps 8 and 9 with their tyres fired up.

The leaders’ pace hovered in the low 2:21s for the majority of the opening stint, but as drier lines began to appear, the benchmark laptimes improved, as he set a 2:20.119 on the following tour.

READ MORE: Browning: ‘Win was on without spin’ but title hopes very much alive after Spa comeback

This was when some drivers in the top 10 began making their mandatory pitstops, with likes of Leonardo Fornaroli, Gabriele Minì and Dino Beganovic opting to stop on Lap 10 of the Feature Race.

The trio had been fighting and therefore losing time to those ahead, but Beganovic in particular began to fire in quick sector times and the leaders responded by Lap 12, just as the Swede put in a 2:17.910 for the fastest lap of the race.

This was the trigger for the remaining runners to make their stops and fit fresh Wet Pirelli tyres for the final stint of the Feature.

KEEPING IT ON TRACK

Soon after the pitstop phase, rain began to intensify around sections of the 7km Spa circuit, with both DAMS Lucas Oil car’s sliding off the road at various points, and Miyata suffered a spin that dropped him from second to fourth.

This was when the drivers with the most confidence began to make a difference. Dunne stretched his advantage in the second stint having learned from the first, measuring out the performance of his tyres for longer, having successfully fended off Roman Stanek on his outlap.

Browning was finding serious pace as he attempted to make up for a spin on pit exit after his mandatory stop. He closed on the top five with each passing lap, setting a 2:18.405 on Lap 14 as, the rest of the leaders could get no closer than the 2:20s.

By the time of Montoya’s spin on Lap 18 up Eau Rouge and cresting Raidillon, Dunne’s advantage in front was over four seconds, while Browning had reached the top five and immediately latched onto the back of Miyata for fourth. It would have been interesting to see where the Hitech driver would have ended up had the race run to the end as scheduled.

READ MORE: Alexander Dunne penalised following Spa Francorchamps Feature Race

CLEAR AIR IS KING

Of course, the spray will have impacted drivers’ abilities to make the most of the fresh tyres, and while Browning was able to make clinical passes en route to his eventual P3 finish, he spent much of the second stint in the 2:22s when a much quicker pace looked well within hand on old tyres.

Dunne meanwhile was able to maintain a comfortable lead out in front not impacted by dirty air or spray ahead of him to coax the best out of his second set of Wets.

While the Irishman ultimately lost out on victory, he proved the importance of clear air. His defence from Stanek following his pitstop was a crucial moment beyond keeping hold of the effective race lead.

With more rain potentially on the way in Budapest, it will be interesting to see what lessons are taken from Round 9 and implemented around the Hungaroring, a track notoriously tricky to pass at.